2026 has kicked off with plenty of news, and the 2025 Q4 earnings season is in full swing. The World Economic Forum concluded in Davos, Switzerland. Meanwhile, Gold and Silver continue their parabolic run.
Hyperscaler earnings are on deck this week. The January Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets with commentary from the Fed Chair on a rate decision. The week of 1/26/26 is set to be very busy.
The Week in Review (1/19/26)
Markets at a Glance
| Market | Week’s Return |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.35% (+0.23%) |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.50% (+1.92%) |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | +0.26% (+0.24%) |
| Plebdex | -0.47% (+4.34%) |
| Gold | +8.69% (+14.38%) |
| Silver | +13.98% (+38.44%) |
| Brent Crude Oil | +2.79% (+9.77%) |
| Bitcoin | -6.47% (-0.24%) |
| U.S. Dollar (DXY) | -1.63% (-1.41%) |
| Long-term Treasuries (TLT) | +0.11% (+0.77%) |
* YTD shown in parentheses (). % is calculated from the prior Friday’s close.
Q4 ’25 Earnings Season
The tape was “beats are common, guidance is the differentiator,” with S&P 500 Q4 results tracking ~81% EPS beats by late week. (Reuters)
- Big-cap prints were mixed on the guide: Netflix beat Q4 revenue by ~+1.1% and EPS by ~+1.8%, but shares slid as the market focused on forward guidance and headlines. (Reuters)
- Intel was the clearest downside reaction: its Q1 revenue midpoint implied ~-2.5% vs consensus with breakeven EPS guidance, and the stock dropped ~13% after-hours. (Reuters)
- Defensives “fine but not exciting”: P&G missed sales by ~-0.3% but beat EPS by ~+1.1% and maintained its annual outlook (stock reaction muted/soft). (Reuters)
- Healthcare beat-and-raise still didn’t guarantee upside: J&J beat Q4 EPS by ~+1.7% and guided 2026 sales about +1.1% above consensus (EPS midpoint about +0.7%), yet the stock was down premarket on overhangs. (Reuters)
- Airlines were a relative bright spot on outlook: United beat EPS by ~+5.4% and issued a solid 2026 range (midpoint slightly below consensus but upbeat tone), lifting the name. (Reuters)
Fed Speak
The dominant message was “hold for now.” A Reuters poll showed most economists expected the fed funds range (3.50%–3.75%) to stay unchanged through March, with cuts pushed later into 2026 as inflation remains above target. (Reuters)
On top of that, Fed officials kept emphasizing policy is “well-positioned”/data-dependent (no urgency to ease), reinforcing a higher-for-longer bias that kept markets sensitive to each print and each guide. (Reuters)
Crypto
The Senate Banking Committee postponed a planned markup of the “Clarity Act” market-structure bill after Coinbase’s CEO said the company couldn’t support the current draft, citing issues including impacts to stablecoin rewards.
Economic Data
| Time (ET) | Report | Period | Actual | Median Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, JAN. 19 | |||||
| None scheduled, Martin Luther King Jr. holiday | |||||
| TUESDAY, JAN. 20 | |||||
| None scheduled | |||||
| WEDNESDAY, JAN. 21 | |||||
| 10:00 am | Construction spending (delayed report) | Oct. | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.6% |
| 10:00 am | Pending home sales | Dec. | -9.3% | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| THURSDAY, JAN. 22 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Initial jobless claims | Jan. 17 | 200,000 | 208,000 | 199,000 |
| 8:30 am | GDP (first revision) | Q3 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 10:00 am | Personal income (delayed report) | Nov. | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 10:00 am | Personal spending (delayed report) | Nov. | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 10:00 am | PCE index (delayed report) | Nov. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00 am | PCE (year-over-year) | 2.8% | — | 2.7% | |
| 10:00 am | Core PCE index | Nov. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00 am | Core PCE (year-over-year) | 2.8% | — | 2.7% | |
| FRIDAY, JAN. 23 | |||||
| 9:45 am | S&P flash U.S. services PMI | Jan. | 52.5 | 53.0 | 52.5 |
| 9:45 am | S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI | Jan. | 51.9 | 52.1 | 51.8 |
| 10:00 am | Consumer sentiment (final) | Jan. | 56.4 | 54.0 | 54.0 |
(Source: MarketWatch)
The Week Ahead (1/26/26)
Q4 ’25 Earnings Season Continued
The coming week is expected to be a busy earnings week with hyperscalers Apple, Microsoft, and Meta reporting alongside energy, financial, and industrial bellwethers.
The most anticipated earnings for this month, courtesy of Earnings Whispers.
Economic Data
| Time (ET) | Report | Period | Actual | Median Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, JAN. 26 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Durable-goods orders (delayed report) | Nov. | 4.5% | -2.2% | |
| 8:30 am | Durable-goods minus transportation | Nov. | — | 0.2% | |
| TUESDAY, JAN. 27 | |||||
| 10:00 am | Consumer confidence | Jan. | 90.0 | 89.1 | |
| WEDNESDAY, JAN. 28 | |||||
| 2:00 pm | FOMC interest-rate decision | ||||
| 2:30 pm | Fed Chair Powell press conference | ||||
| THURSDAY, JAN. 29 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Initial jobless claims | Jan. 24 | 209,000 | 200,000 | |
| 8:30 am | U.S. trade deficit (delayed report) | Nov. | -$45.1B | -$29.4B | |
| 8:30 am | U.S. productivity (revised) | Q3 | 4.9% | 4.9% | |
| 10:00 am | Wholesale inventories (delayed report) | Nov. | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00 am | Factory orders (delayed report) | Nov. | 1.1% | -1.3% | |
| FRIDAY, JAN. 30 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Producer price index (delayed report) | Dec. | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30 am | Core PPI | Dec. | — | 0.2% | |
| 8:30 am | PPI year over year | — | 3.0% | ||
| 8:30 am | Core PPI year over year | — | 3.5% | ||
| 9:45 am | Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Jan. | 42.0 | 42.7 | |
| 1:30 pm | St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech | ||||
| 5:00 pm | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech |
(Source: MarketWatch)
Closing Thoughts
2025 Q4 earnings have kicked off. Earnings’ guidance will likely shape market direction, along with persistent foreign policy news on Venezuela and Greenland. While we got clarity that force would not be used to acquire Greenland, a deal was on the table, and tariffs off the table for NATO allies, those positives were countered late in the weekend.
- 100% tarriff threats on Canada for a deal with China. (ABC)
- Risk of a government shutdown centered on immigration funding (CNBC)
- The U.S. has moved military assets to the Middle East as protests in Iran escalate and the country continues to destabilize. (Bloomberg)
- Rumors across social media have raised speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the Treasury, will prop up the Japanese Yen. (Bloomberg)
Materials broadly continue their record runs, with Gold and Silver climbing. By all technical analysis, these assets are heavily overbought as FOMO has replaced reality. A 30-50% correction is likely within the year, more so in Silver than in Gold.
The dollar will likely weaken if the U.S. moves to intervene in Japan’s Yen as the government will sell U.S. Dollars to buy Yen. This could strengthen markets as jitters in Japan subside, and doing business in dollars will become slightly cheaper, boosting foreign revenues and exports. A positive if the administration’s goal is to further reduce the trade deficit. The terms for Japan are unclear at present.
We still expect a ~10-20% correction in the first half of 2026. At present, core market technicals signal this correction may be sooner (Feb/March) rather than later. It could also be shallow (7-8%) as there is still plenty of cash on the sidelines. We’d like to see something deeper to shake out speculative trades of unprofitable companies.
The average analyst target for the S&P 500 for 2026 remains 7600, which is around 10% upside from here. We view the risk/reward as skewed toward the downside in the short term.
We want to hear the forward guidance corporations are expected to deliver in their reports, especially this coming week. Regardless, buy dips in great companies. There are still many companies trading cheaply, making this a stock picker’s market.
While Bitcoin $150k never materialized in 2026, we consider a new ATH of ~$126k (19% off our mark) as encouraging. We see Bitcoin making a run for $200k this year. However, we see Bitcoin as being susceptible to another downside flush to $65k-$70k.
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