January Performance Overview

“So goes January, so goes the year.” – Investor’s Almanac

January was a great month for the Plebdex and the start of the year. Overall, the index demonstrated relative outperformance relative to our S&P 500 benchmark. Here are the highlights from January:

• Monthly Return: The index recorded a 3.84% increase compared to the S&P 500’s 2.25%.
• Market Sentiment: Investor confidence appears strong, as evidenced by the increased participation of retail traders and overall analyst sentiments.
• Key Movers: Kratos Defense & Security is The Plebdex’s strongest-performing asset, with a 26% return in the year’s first month. This was followed by Uber, which received a 7.50% return.
• Earnings Reports: Intel reported earnings on 1/30. Fourth-quarter revenue was $14.3 billion, down 7% year-over-year. For the full year of 2024, Intel booked $53.1 billion, down 2% year-over-year. Earnings per Share (EPS) for the fourth quarter was a loss of $0.03 per share, and the full 2024 EPS was a loss of $4.38 per share.
  • Intel spent $26 billion in 2023 and $24 billion in 2024 to overhaul its foundry business to become a global leader in foundry services, competing directly with TSMC.
  • The jury is still out on whether Intel can deliver on its promises, and Pat Gelsinger’s ouster as CEO has introduced additional uncertainty. The company will need to replace Pat with a seasoned semiconductor leader quickly.
  • We still believe the market is not appreciating Intel’s advanced fabrication tech, such as 18A, its successful launch of Intel Arc GPUs that were well received in the gaming and AI/ML communities, the upcoming release of its new Celestial GPUs, and Xeon Server CPUs that are dual purpose CPU/GPU.
  • There are rumors that a buyer is looking to purchase Intel. At present, the market has speculated on the following contenders:
    • Broadcom
    • Elon Musk
    • Qualcomm

We look forward to seeing what shakes out over the next few months.

This month’s performance is illustrated in the diagram below:

Key Statistics

The Plebdex set a new all-time high in January. On January 22^nd, the Plebdex had returned 72% to investors since its inception in 2023. This contrasts with the S&P 500’s respectable 64% return during this period.

Below, we have charted an initial investment of $10,000 in the Plebdex and the S&P 500 on January 1st, 2023, with all dividends reinvested through January 31^st, 2025. There was a little giveback toward the end of this month due to trade policy uncertainty. Regardless, the returns are well above the long-term average.

• Plebdex: 68.88% return growing $10,000 to $16,888
• S&P 500: 60.08% return growing $10,000 to $16083

Important note: your return may differ slightly as your money is invested at varying periods. The Plebdex ignores capital gains calculations and assumes the money is invested in a tax-advantaged account, such as a 401k, ROTH IRA, HSA, etc. Regardless, each year’s Plebdex will seek to reduce churn between assets to reduce the impact of realizing capital gains.

Market Insights and Broader Trends

The equal-weight S&P 500 has outperformed its market-weighted counterpart as money flowed out of mega-cap tech and into the broader market.  

January’s performance wasn’t isolated—external market conditions played a significant role.

DeepSeek Spooks Investors:

Chinese company DeepSeek spooked investors in AI-related names by claiming it spent $6M to train its V3 model. The model performs comparably to OpenAI’s Chat GPT-4o, and the low cost of training called into question the U.S. mega-caps’ massive capital expenditures, which could top $300 billion this year alone.

Nvidia saw a steep 21% drop on January 27^th, recovering a few percent in the late-session trade.  

We viewed the down days in the market as a buy-the-dip opportunity as investor pessimism had soured too quickly. That said, we still see many asset values as being stretched, and investors easily spooked.

Looking Ahead: February Expectations

As we wrap up January, it’s time to set our sights on February. While past performance isn’t always indicative of future results, here are some factors to watch:

Earnings Season:

The end of January marked the beginning of corporate earnings season. Many of the S&P 500’s companies will report their earnings. This could result in elevated volatility as market participants digest earnings and, more importantly, the full 2025 outlook. Here are Plebdex holdings and their upcoming earnings dates.

• PayPal: 2/4/2025 (Pre-Market)
• Alphabet: 2/4/2025 (After-Hours)
• Uber: 2/5/2025 (Pre-Market)
• Amazon: 2/6/2025 (After-Hours)
• Kratos: 2/18/2025 (After-Hours)

Trade Policy:

The White House has indicated that it will soon release an updated trade policy with new tariffs. We expect this to introduce brief selloffs, but do not panic—the market will quickly reprice on any positive developments.

Conclusion

January was a month of learning and adaptation for the Plebdex as we rotated to new holdings as the beginning of the year. By blending analysis with interactive visuals, we aim to make the numbers accessible and engaging for every investor.

We welcome your feedback. What trends stood out to you, and what additional data visualizations would enhance your understanding? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s navigate the market together.

Stay tuned for our next update in February. Until then, happy investing!