Gold, silver, and their metallic cousins have all been glinting this year, but the glow might be fading.

Gold has blasted past $4,300 an ounce, rewritten record books, and drawn massive ETF flows. Silver, often the understudy, isn’t staying in the wings: in H1 2025, silver-backed ETPs took in ~95 million ounces in net flows, nudging global holdings to ~1.13 billion ounces.

But when every so-called “safe trade” starts looking like a crowded trade, the risk shifts. The allure of metals isn’t purely hedging anymore; it’s momentum. And momentum is fickle. We begin looking for contrarian plays.

While the shoe-shine and FOMO crowds line up for precious metals at peak, another contender is queuing for its next step function, with recent events making it even more attractive.

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have seen a colossal shakeout in the past week, with approximately $20 billion in liquidations of highly leveraged (10-15x+) positions as a result of a price depeg involving USDe, BNSOL, and WBETH (ref).

During the upheaval, Bitcoin saw a drawdown to $101k, its 5-year, 10-week moving average. This point is noteworthy because it has consistently marked the yearly bottom in Bitcoin over the past 3 years, also providing support during previous bull runs. Conversely, it is also a major pivot point.

A break below this point has usually seen large (30%) drawdowns. With a deleveraging event 15x the size of FTX and Bitcoin still sitting at support, we couldn’t be more bullish.

Since the end of August, the Gold run has seen Gold’s market cap increase by $5 trillion to a total of $28.7 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin sits at a total market cap of $2.1 trillion. Gold’s market cap grew two Bitcoins’ worth in two months.

Any form of rotation from Gold into Bitcoin would send prices soaring. We anticipate Bitcoin will rise to $150k by the end of 2025. However, if Bitcoin experiences the same FOMO as Gold, we see spot Bitcoin approaching $250,000-$350,000 by mid-2026.

Our 2030 FOMO target of $1 million per coin is unchanged. When in doubt, follow the Price Rainbow (history).

If you’re a pleb investor, you don’t need to chase the metal that everyone’s talking about. Maybe it’s time to watch the asset they aren’t yet talking about. Checkout NerdWallet’s How to Buy Bitcoin. Wanna be bullish, read the Bitcoin WhitePaper and VanEck’s Bull Thesis to start.