Welcome to this week’s edition of The Sunday Pleb, where we make sense of the week in the rearview and what’s ahead in five minutes or less. We are a little over a month away from the beginning of 2026.
The Week in Review (11/17/25)
Markets at a Glance
Volatility returned to markets as equities continued their selloff from the end of October. We view the pullback as needed and healthy. Skepticism is better than exuberance. Markets often climb “walls of worry,” and slide “slopes of hope.”
| Market | Week’s Return |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.65% (+12.45%) |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.51% (+8.71%) |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | -2.23% (+15.42%) |
| Plebdex | -2.57% (+18.03%) |
| Gold | -0.47% (+53.2%) |
| Silver | -1.44% (+69.6%) |
| Brent Crude Oil | -2.93% (-6.89%) |
| Bitcoin | -10.25% (-12.23%) |
| U.S. Dollar (DXY) | unchanged (-7.26%) |
| Treasuries (TLT) | +0.69% (+1.94%) |
* YTD shown in parentheses ()
Q3 ’25 Earnings Season
Q3 earnings season is now down to the last few stragglers. Nvidia’s earnings were strong, its forward guidance exceeded expectations, and the stock was bought after hours. However, between Wednesday’s post-earnings close and Thursday’s market close, Nvidia’s stock had dropped 11.5% from peak to trough as investors continued to sell assets.
Home Depot spooked investors with tepid guidance amid a pullback in home builder and remodeler activity. Walmart announced the retirement of its CEO and plans to transition its stock listing from the NYSE to the NASDAQ. As they said in their earnings call, they’re growing into a “tech company.”
Here’s a recap of where we are.
- 96% of the S&P 500’s companies have been reported so far.
- 83% earnings beat rate is well above the 5-yr (78%) & 10-yr (75%) avgs.
- 76% revenue beat rate is well above the 5-yr (70%) & 10-yr (66%) avgs.
- 13.4% y/y earnings growth; 7% being the long-running avgs.
- 8.3% y/y revenue growth, which is the highest since Q3 2022.
- 20th straight quarter of y/y revenue growth for the overall index.
Stonk Saturday
No edition this week.
There were many defining names in the market this week. Earnings from retailers and mega caps gave us a perspective into two major trends: consumer and industrial AI buildout. We believe the market is pricing in some government shutdown-related weakness.
Fed Speak
The October FOMC minutes revealed committee divisions on rates, with many open to further easing but others cautious on inflation. Speeches covered banking supervision (Barr), financial stability (Cook), AI’s impacts (Jefferson), and policy navigation (Williams). Key highlight: NY Fed President John Williams indicated “room for a further adjustment in the near term,” hinting at a potential December cut and lifting market probabilities to around 75%. We view this as what helped markets stage a Friday rally.
Crypto
Crypto markets remain very weak. Liquidations continue for leveraged accounts. Bitcoin sits in a very interesting technical support area between $83,000 and $87,000. We will adjust our year-end target if the week shows weakness; however, we still see a rally to $150k within the possible.
Economic News
| Time (ET) | Report | Period | Actual | Median Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, NOV. 17 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Empire State manufacturing survey | Nov. | 18.7 | 5.5 | 10.7 |
| 10:00 am | Construction spending (delayed report) | Aug. | 0.2% | — | 0.2% |
| TUESDAY, NOV. 18 | |||||
| 8:30 am | *Import price index | Oct. | 0.1% | NA | |
| 8:30 am | *Import price index minus fuel | Oct. | — | NA | |
| 9:15 am | *Industrial production | Oct. | 0.0% | NA | |
| 9:15 am | *Capacity utilization | Oct. | 77.5% | NA | |
| 10:00 am | Factory orders (delayed report) | Aug. | 1.4% | 1.5% | -1.3% |
| 10:00 am | Home builder confidence index | Nov. | 38 | 37 | 37 |
| WEDNESDAY, NOV. 19 | |||||
| 8:30 am | *Housing starts | Oct. | 1.32 million | NA | |
| 8:30 am | *Building permits | Oct. | 1.33 million | NA | |
| 8:30 am | U.S. trade deficit [delayed report] | Aug. | $-59.6B | -$61.0B | -$78.2B |
| 2:00 pm | Minutes of Fed’s October FOMC meeting | ||||
| THURSDAY, NOV 20 | |||||
| 8:30 am | U.S. employment report (delayed report) | Sept. | 119,000 | 50,000 | 22,000 |
| 8:30 am | U.S. unemployment rate (delayed report) | Sept. | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 8:30 am | U.S. hourly wages | Sept. | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30 am | Hourly wages year over year | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30 am | Initial jobless claims | Nov. 15 | 220,000 | 227,000 | 232,000 |
| 8:30 am | Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey | Nov. | -1.7 | 1.5 | -12.8 |
| 10:00 am | Existing home sales | Oct. | 4.1 million | 4.1 million | 4.05 million |
| 10:00 am | *U.S. leading economic indicators | Oct. | -0.3% | NA | |
| FRIDAY, NOV. 21 | |||||
| 9:45 am | S&P flash U.S. services PMI | Nov. | 55 | 54.5 | 54.8 |
| 9:45 am | S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI | Nov. | 51.9 | 52.0 | 52.5 |
| 10:00 am | U Mich consumer sentiment (final) | Nov. | 51.0 | 51.0 | 50.3 |
| 10:00 am | Wholesale inventories (delayed report) | Aug. | 0.0 | — | 0.1% |
The Week Ahead (11/24/25)
November and December are seasonally strong months. We expect market weakness to dissipate as the year draws to a close.
Q3 ’25 Earnings Season Continued
The last week of S&P earnings.
Economic Data
| Time (ET) | Report | Period | Median Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, NOV. 24 | ||||
| None scheduled | ||||
| TUESDAY, NOV. 25 | ||||
| 8:30 am | U.S. retail sales (delayed report) | Sept. | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 8:30 am | U.S. retail sales minus autos | Sept. | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 8:30 am | Producer price index (delayed report) | Sept. | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30 am | Core PPI | Sept. | NA | 0.3% |
| 8:30 am | PPI year over year | 2.6% | ||
| 8:30 am | Core PPI year over year | 2.8% | ||
| 9:00 am | S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | Sept. | NA | 1.6% |
| 10:00 am | Business inventories (delayed report) | Aug. | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 10:00 am | Consumer confidence | Nov. | 93.4 | 94.6 |
| 10:00 am | Pending home sales | Oct. | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| WEDNESDAY, NOV. 26 | ||||
| 8:30 am | Initial jobless claims | Nov. 22 | 225,000 | 220,000 |
| 8:30 am | Durable-goods orders (delayed report) | Sept. | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 8:30 am | Durable-goods minus transportation (delayed report) | Sept. | 0.4% | |
| THURSDAY, NOV. 27 | ||||
| Thanksgiving holiday, none scheduled | ||||
| FRIDAY, NOV. 28 | ||||
| 9:45 am | Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Nov. | NA | 43.8 |
Closing Thoughts
Earnings remain strong, and S&P 500 constituents are guiding their 2026 estimates higher. We have two rate cuts (0.50% total) in the rear-view mirror, the Fed has hinted at additional near-term cuts with room for more in the future, and ample liquidity on the sidelines. Any dip in the markets should be viewed as healthy, not as a change in macro sentiment.
We see a return to record highs by the end of the year.
If you haven’t already, please like and subscribe. Enjoy the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday.
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