We apologize for the delay in publishing this week’s Stonk Saturday. Consider it a Sunday special. We hope that folks had a nice Thanksgiving holiday with friends and family.
If you’ve been bagholding Google for the last 18 months, I owe you a drink. Seriously. We watched NVIDIA buy a new yacht every quarter, Microsoft pretend it invented AI, and even Meta rise from the ashes. Meanwhile, Google shareholders were stuck in purgatory, watching Sundar apologize because his AI couldn’t draw a founding father without an HR violation.
The “Google is Dead” narrative was so loud you could hear it from the cheap seats. The bears said Google Search was over. They said the company was too bloated to tie its own shoes.
Well, guess what? The Empire just woke up. And it brought a lightsaber. A Plebdex holding for three years, Google has always been an undervalued and underowned gem. The Gemini 3 release, coupled with TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) announcements, has rerated the stock, which sits up nearly 70% YTD as of writing.
Gemini 3: It Actually Works
Let’s be real: Gemini 1.0 was a beta test. Gemini 2.0 was “okay.” But Gemini 3? This is the one we were promised. The benchmarks can be viewed here. Is ChatGPT the Yahoo of yesteryear?
The fact that this is rolling out to billions of Workspace users overnight isn’t just an “update.” It’s an extinction event for about 500 AI startups that were just wrapping ChatGPT in a trench coat.
The Real Alpha: Zuck Kissed the Ring
While everyone was tweeting about Gemini benchmarks, the real money was watching the infrastructure news. The leak that Meta is in talks to use Google’s TPUs is the biggest “tell” of the year.
Think about the 4D chess here:
- Nvidia Competition: The H100 monopoly is officially cracked. If Meta, one of the biggest spenders on the planet, is willing to cheat on NVIDIA with Google, the “endless demand” narrative for GPUs just got a reality check. Nvidia’s pricing power may erode as it bleeds customers. They already earn ~75% margins on revenue; if they have to cut prices, those margins begin to squeeze.
- The Landlord of AI: Google isn’t just renting compute anymore; they are selling the shovel and the mine. They own the entire vertical, from data centers and cloud to TPUs, AI models, and the plethora of other services Google owns and provides (YouTube, Search, Ads, GCP, and Waymo).
Zuck admitting he needs Google’s silicon is the ultimate validation. It turns Google from a “desperate AI user” into the “AI Landlord.”
The Verdict: We Are So Back
The AI Trade was getting stale. It felt like a crowded room where everyone was just staring at NVIDIA, CoreWeave, Microsoft, Oracle, and adjacents. Google just kicked the door down and reminded everyone they have $100B in cash, their own chips, and the world’s data.
The chart looks like it’s waking up from a coma. The fundamentals are actually sane (unlike some other tech stocks we won’t mention).
The Long-term Investor Rating: 5 out of 5 We are Diamond Handing this one and buyers of any dip. We see Google reaching $600-$700 a share by 2030, representing nearly 100% upside over the next 4 years. We like those odds given Google’s verticals and ability to profitably grow AI endeavours. This cannot be said of Microsoft and OpenAI.
The Short-term Investor Rating: 3 out of 5 We are cautious after any major run (40%+). Google could trade sideways (no price action up or down) for the next few months.
Disclaimer: I am long and own GOOGL. This is not financial advice; I am just a person with a keyboard.
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