Welcome to The Sunday Pleb. We make sense of the Week in the rearview and what’s ahead in five minutes or less. The 43-day U.S. Government shutdown has ended, and we now enter one of the final, consequential weeks for 3rd-quarter earnings.
The Week in Review (11/10/25)
Markets at a Glance
Major averages remained relatively tame despite weakness in frothy speculative AI and adjacent trade names. Bitcoin continues to struggle, but rallies tend to begin when the hour is bleakest, sentiment is profoundly negative, and leveraged liquidity is flushed.
| Market | Week’s Return |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.25% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 0.43% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | -0.05% |
| Plebdex | -1.18% |
| Gold | 2.08% |
| Silver | 4.76% |
| Brent Crude Oil | 0.88% |
| Bitcoin | -9.18% |
| U.S. Dollar (DXY) | -0.33% |
| Treasuries (TLT) | -0.78% |
Q3 ’25 Earnings Season
Q3 earnings season will wind down with Nvidia’s earnings report on 11/19. Here’s a recap of where we are.
- 94% of the S&P 500’s companies have been reported so far.
- 82% earnings beat rate is well above the 5-yr (78%) & 10-yr (75%) avgs.
- 77% revenue beat rate is well above the 5-yr (70%) & 10-yr (66%) avgs.
- 13.1% y/y earnings growth
- 8.3% y/y revenue growth, which is the highest since Q3 2022.
- 20th straight quarter of y/y revenue growth for the overall index.
AI Valuation Concerns
Our Stonk Saturday: CoreWeave highlights the market theme over the past two weeks. There’s been a lot of noise about whether the CAPEX guidance from AI players and hyperscalers is sustainable and what the ultimate return on that investment will be.
Since our Halloween Special, many of the speculative Quantum names have corrected 40-50%. We still think there is more to go. It’s difficult to justify multi-billion-dollar valuations with limited annual revenue.
Crypto
Crypto markets remain weak, but we believe a bottom is nearly in for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Economic News
- Government Shutdown Ends After 43 Days, Easing Economic Drag: Congress passed a bipartisan funding bill to reopen federal operations through January, averting further GDP contraction estimated at 1.4% for Q4. This clears the way for delayed economic data releases, though analysts warn of lingering effects on consumer spending and hiring.
- Trump Proposes $2,000 ‘Tariff Dividend’ Stimulus Checks: The president floated direct payments to Americans using tariff revenues exceeding $215 billion, aiming to offset rising costs and boost spending. Critics highlight risks of fueling inflation, with implementation tied to fiscal negotiations.
- Administration Rolls Back Food Tariffs to Combat Inflation: In a reversal, the White House lifted levies on imports like beef and coffee to ease grocery prices, which have risen over 3% year-over-year. Economists view this as an acknowledgment that tariffs contributed to higher consumer costs, potentially signaling broader trade policy tweaks.
- October Job Cuts Hit 20-Year High Amid AI and Shutdown Fallout: Private data from Challenger showed 153,000 layoffs, the largest monthly increase since 2003, driven by tech (22%) and warehousing (30%) sectors. The shutdown delayed official BLS reports, but early signs point to a cooling labor market with unemployment potentially ticking above 4%.
- Yellen Warns U.S. Risks’ Banana Republic’ Status from Tariffs and Cuts: Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized the administration’s reliance on tariffs and proposed federal funding cuts, arguing they could erode economic stability and investor confidence. This amplified debates on fiscal policy amid a $35 trillion debt load. I’m sure this wasn’t a problem during her tenure as Federal Reserve Chair or Treasury Secretary.
- Consumer Confidence Slips as Affordability Pressures Mount: Surveys showed sentiment near historical lows, with high prices squeezing households despite the White House’s touted stock market highs. First-time homebuyers hit a record average age of 40, and pantry staples drove CPI higher, underscoring an uneven recovery.
- Toyota’s $13.9B North Carolina Plant Signals Manufacturing Boom: The automaker’s new battery facility, creating thousands of jobs, highlights resurging domestic investment in EVs and innovation.
The Week Ahead (11/17/25)
The coming Week is set to be a bit more tame, but Q3 earnings season continues.
Q3 ’25 Earnings Season Continued
This earnings week will be dominated most by Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. However, we will also get key information for home construction and renovations from Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings. Further, major retailers Target, Walmart, and BJ’s will provide insights into consumer spending and holiday-season expectations.
Economic Data
Closing Thoughts
Earnings remain strong, and S&P 500 constituents are guiding their 2026 estimates higher. We have two rate cuts (0.50% total) in the rear-view mirror, with room for more in the future, and ample liquidity on the sidelines. Any dip in the markets should be viewed as healthy, not as a change in macro sentiment.
This coming week has the opportunity to reignite the AI rally or accelerate growth scare concerns. We are looking forward to Nvidia’s earnings report and the guidance for the coming year. May the odds be ever in our favor. If you haven’t already, please like and subscribe.
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